A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
